Growth in economic activity was better in April 2022 than the March 2021-22 quarter and is likely to remain strong even in May 2022, so real GDP as well as gross value added (GVA) growth could be 9.5 per cent each in the current fiscal first quarter, reports by Motilal brokerage firm Oswal Financial Services has estimated.
Estimates are based on the Motilal Oswal index of internal economic activity (EAI).
“After a seven-month break with sub-6 per cent year-on-year growth, our preliminary estimates of the internal EAI Index for India’s real GVA (EAI-GVA) suggest a sharp increase of 8.2 per cent year-on-year in April 2022 (compared to 5.5 per cent in March 2022). ), led by faster growth in both the farm and non-farm sectors, ”the firm said in the report.
It further said that EAI-GDP also grew at an eight-month high of 9.1 per cent year-on-year (compared to 7.7 per cent year-on-year in March 2022) driven by strong investment and private consumption spending.
The EAI-GVA details suggest that the plantation sector grew 7.6 per cent year-on-year in April 2022 (compared to 2.3 per cent year-on-year in March 2022), the Motilal Oswal report said.
In addition, the non-plantation sector also grew at an eight-month high of 8.2 per cent year-on-year, driven by faster growth in both services and industrial activities.
Investment, on the other hand, rose sharply by 10.6 percent year -on -year in April 2022, more than double the 5.4 percent year -over -year growth seen in March 2022, the report said.
According to the report, the monthly analysis of selected indicators for May2022 shows a steady increase in economic growth.
The majority of indicators – PMI services, toll collection, Vaahan registration, Google mobility, imports and power generation – recorded faster growth year -on -year.
“Overall, our internal estimates suggest much better growth in economic activity in April 2022 compared to the March 2021-22 quarter. Moreover, it appears to remain strong even in May 2022. Therefore, we believe that real GDP/GVA growth could reach 9.5 per cent each in the first quarter of 2022-23, lower than the market consensus of 14 per cent and 13.5 per cent, respectively. respectively, ”the report said.