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Forecast S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 – Stumbled on the Cliffs – By ASC


S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 Prices, Charts and Analysis

  • The S&P 500 remains high ahead of the US NFP.
  • The Nasdaq 100 is located not far from a new one -year low.

The U.S. stock market returned all rallies after the FOMC on Wednesday and more on Thursday as sellers wiped the floor with the market. The Nasdaq 100 fell 5%, the S&P 500 slipped 3.5%while the Dow Jones lost 3.12%. Losses were arbitrary with any sector escaping the sale as investors ’concerns over growth prospects in the US dominated market trading.

The monthly US Jobs Report (NFP) was released at 12:30 UK today with the market looking for 391k new jobs created in April compared to 431k in the previous month. The unemployment rate is seen to decline slightly to 3.5%, while the average hourly income month -on -month appears to remain unchanged at 0.4%. The U.S. job market remains robust and unless today’s report is disappointing, the U.S. dollar should remain bidding as traders continue to take into account higher U.S. interest rates. John Williams of the Fed and Raphael Bostic both spoke late today and they may give a little insight into Wednesday’s FOMC decision.

For all the data releases and events that drive the market, see DailyFX Economic Calendar

S&P 500 chart shows how technical analysis can work even during turbulence. The bullish hammer candle we identified on Monday produced a sharp bounce up to yesterday’s sale, while the resistance zone we saw around 4,300 – 4,310 was held on Wednesday and Thursday. For S&P to have any chance of recovering in the short term then 4,060 will have to survive otherwise 4,035 will be played out fairly quickly. The resistance zone 4,300 – 4,310 should withstand any attempt to push higher. Volatility remained at a multi -week high.

S&P 500 Daily Price Chart – May 6, 2022

Retailer data shows 68.09% of traders are net long with the ratio of long to short traders at 2.13 versus 1. The number of net-long traders was 18.01% higher than yesterday and 16.33% higher than last week, while the number of net-short traders was 26.33% lower than yesterday and 14.60% lower than last week.

We typically take the opposite view of public sentiment, and the fact that traders are net length suggests the US 500 price may continue to fall. Traders net longer than yesterday and last week, and the combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a the US 500’s counterproductive trading trend is stronger.

The Nasdaq 100 is back in bear market territory and has lost about 25% of its value since its Nov. 22 peak at 16,770. A chart pattern similar to the S&P 500 shows a strong resistance zone around 13,500 to 13,580 and this is unlikely to be broken in the short term. The multi -month low of 12,710 is back under pressure with a confirmed break leaving 12,623 vulnerable.

Nasdaq 100 Daily Price Chart – May 6, 2022

Forecast S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 - Stumbled on the Cliffs

What is your view yang US Equity Market – up or down ?? You can let us know via the form at the end of this section or you can contact the author via Twitter @nickcawley1.

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